Here is a simply graph illustrating the effects of going out too fast in Boston. The X axis represents the mile markers and the Y axis represents my pace for that mile. Note the red horizontal line indicating my target pace. I have exaggerated the scale of the pace to make my drop-off at the end more conspicuous.
In fact, it is not as bad as it looks. If I had followed my plan exactly, I still would have been above target for the first 16 miles, and below it for most of the remaining miles. I had not planned to run in the 6's and low 7's all the way to the Newton Hills, which is what I did. The peak of Heartbreak Hill is at the 20.5 mile mark. Still, I didn't completely blow it. Look at the way I picked up the pace to 7:16 for mile 21. Unfortunately,doing that completed the trashing of my quads. I ran the last four miles at 7:49, 8:08, 8:00, and 7:57.
My conclusions: My plan was basically sound, and despite going out too fast, the plan did serve me in the end by allowing to finish at 3:16:55 despite slow miles through the hills and four slow miles in the end. I am convinced that if I had held about a 7:15 - 7:20 pace through mile 16, I would have had much more in reserve to finish strong. I estimate that running smarter would have enabled me to finish around 3:13 - 3:14. Please...everyone...remember to remind me of this next year.
8 hours ago