Boston: Prediction, Training, Tracking

Prediction

Anyone who has run Boston knows as the race approaches, your fellow runners will inevitably ask...

• "What time are you aiming for?"
  
• "What do you think you're going to do in Boston?"
  
• "What's your prediction for Boston?"
  

With a week to go, I cannot dodge the question any longer, so here is my prediction for Boston...cloudy, low in the mid-forties and high in the mid-fifties, with a 20% chance of precipitation.

Seriously, I don't know how I am going to do in Boston, so I am not going to make a prediction. My most recent real test was the half-marathon in Youngstown last month, which I ran in 1 hour 31 minutes. To me, that indicates a marathon time of about 3:06. That of which of itself would be a huge improvement over last year, and would not be likely unless the wind and weather conditions are good. I have been hearing lots of noise about trying for sub-3 hours, but the idea that I can knock 17 minutes of my time last year seems improbable. A sub-3 hour marathon would require that I average under a 6:52/mile pace. For perspective, last year my average pace was 7:30/mile, and my fastest single mile in the whole race was 6:51. To go sub-3 hours, I would have to run all 26 miles at that pace this year. See my point?

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Training

It was a good, 58 mile, taper week. After a Monday recovery run, I was forced indoors for the speed session on Tuesday, due to the snow and cold. The treadmill only goes up to 6:00/min pace, so I did three 1 mile repeats at that pace. I followed that on Wednesday with 6.5 miles at a 6:50 pace, then a moderately paced 6 and 7 miles on Thursday and Friday respectively. Saturday, the usual crew ran a muddy, wet 11 miles. I had to hose-off before going in the house when I got home.

On a cold Sunday morning, I decided to make up for Tuesday's less than full-out speed session by running the first six miles aggressively. Fortunately, I hooked-up with Kam, and we ran to the water stop together. Those first six miles went like this: 7:34 (took us a little bit to warm-up), 6:46, 6:38, 6:26, 6:26, 6:35. After that, I backed off the pace, and finished the 13.76 miles at 7:23 average pace.

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Tracking My Progress on Race Day

On the morning of the race, Monday, April 20th, click on this link, Boston Marathon, before the start of the race at 10:00 AM. Follow the instructions. You will be asked to enter my name or bib number, #4438. My time and pace will automatically be updated as I cross the sensors, which are at 5 kilometer intervals, and at the finish line.